European Journal of Policing Studies
Article

Modelling intelligence-led policing to identify its potential
Keywords System dynamics, collaboration, intelligence, police, intelligence-led policing
Authors Mariëlle den Hengst-Bruggeling, Bart de Graaf en Peter van Scheepstal
DOI 10.5553/EJPS/2034760X2014001003002
Author's information

Mariëlle den Hengst-Bruggeling
Mariëlle den Hengst-Bruggeling holds a position at both Delft University of Technology since 1994 and the Police Academy of the Netherlands since 2009. Informed decision-making is the focus of the research of den Hengst. She focuses on a diverse set of mechanisms that either prohibit or advance informed decision-making. Her main interest is in complex and dynamic settings with multiple actors involved, such as security (corresp: Marielle.den.hengst@politieacademie.nl).

Bart de Graaf
Bart de Graaf is consultant in the area of Workplace Innovation in the expertise group Sustainable Productivity and Employment of the Dutch research institute TNO. He studied physics at the Eindhoven University of Technology. He works at TNO as researcher-consultant in the area of sustainable labour productivity mainly for knowledge workers for profit and non-profit organisations.

Peter van Scheepstal
Peter van Scheepstal is operational analyst at the expertise group Military Operations of the Dutch research institute TNO. Van Scheepstal studied econometrics at the University of Tilburg. He works at TNO as a researcher in the field of defense logistics and military effectiveness. He also works as a modelling expert for other TNO research fields.

  • Abstract

      Intelligence-led policing is a concept of policing that has been applied throughout the world. Despite some encouraging reports, the effect of intelligence-led policing is largely unknown. This paper presents a method with which it is possible to identify intelligence-led policing’s potential to increase the effectiveness of policing. The method is based on modelling with system dynamics and takes into account the complexities of intelligence-led policing. For evaluation purposes, this method has been applied using a case study in the Netherlands. The case study shows that collaboratively constructing the system dynamics model provides a more structured insight into the effects of intelligence-led policing. With system dynamics it is possible to support the ‘good stories’ of intelligence-led policing with argumentation explaining the mechanisms in which intelligence-led policing potentially improves effectiveness.

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